Unfounded rumors of a Japan disaster are going viral, triggering anxiety and keeping visitors away. The country’s tourism industry is already feeling the pinch from a digital scare with real-world consequences.
Rumors have roots in manga
A rumor predicting a catastrophic disaster in Japan on July 5, 2025, has been spreading rapidly online, fueled by social media and sensationalist content creators.
The claim traces back to a Japanese manga that features a dream foreseeing a tsunami. From there, YouTubers known for amplifying baseless rumors churned out more than 1,400 videos, adding layers of alarm ― such as predictions of a volcanic eruption or a meteorite strike. Collectively, these videos have racked up more than 100 million views.
Rumors transcend linguistics, geography
These ideas soon spread beyond Japan’s borders. At least 200 videos that repeat the claims in Chinese have drawn more than 50 million views. Similar versions have appeared in Vietnamese and Thai, too.
The earthquake in Myanmar on March 28th may have added fuel to the fire.
Days later, Japanese authorities released new worst-case estimates for a potential mega-quake in the Nankai Trough.
China’s embassy in Tokyo then issued a notice advising citizens to “make safe arrangements” for travel and study in Japan, and to exercise caution when purchasing real estate.
Some Hong Kong media connected that announcement with the rumors of an impending disaster, stoking more fears of seismic activity in Japan.
Japan’s government has stated that their forecast of potential quake scale was designed to help people prepare for the worst, and reduce any damage, and should not be viewed as a prediction.
Alarm in Hong Kong
But in Hong Kong, fear has taken root, denting a crucial market for Japanese tourism.
One couple, who typically travel to Japan more than three times a year, now say the disaster rumors have them worried and they aren’t planning any trips for the foreseeable future.
The impact has rippled across the travel industry. One Hong Kong travel agency says the number of travelers heading to Japan during the spring holiday season dropped by half compared to last year.
Managing Director Yuen Chun Ning says his customers are opting for other destinations, such as Australia or the UAE, and that reservations for trips to Japan in the summer and beyond are sparse.
Yuen says it’s the first time he’s seen his customers taking action based on a “prophecy.”
In an effort to reassure travelers, the agency has introduced new promotions, including discounted fares and guaranteed refunds if a major earthquake hits Japan before departure, but these efforts have done little to reverse the trend.
Tourism turbulence
In Tokushima Prefecture, western Japan, local government and tourism operators have been stunned by how swiftly these online scares have translated into real damage.
Regular flights connecting Hong Kong and Tokushima launched last November, and local authorities were banking on a jump in international tourist numbers.
Instead, airlines have announced they’re cutting back from three weekly roundtrip flights to just two, starting next month.
Prefectural officials blame the sharp and sudden drop in demand on the spread of the baseless disaster rumors, compounded by global economic uncertainty.
Similar cuts are being made to flights connecting Hong Kong and other Japanese cities, including Sendai, Fukuoka, and Sapporo.
Preparedness over fearmongering
Sekiya Naoya, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s graduate school, says the rumor has no scientific basis and merely echoes baseless fears seen in the past.
“There is no way, with today’s science, to predict exactly when and where an earthquake will occur,” he says.
Sekiya adds that even if a quake were to hit Japan in July, it would not prove the rumor correct ― it would simply be coincidence.
Sekiya says that while Japan must always be prepared for natural disasters, including mega-quakes, spreading groundless rumors only fuels unnecessary fear. He notes that recent seismic activity, including a major earthquake on the Noto Peninsula in January last year, has heightened public anxiety.
What matters most, he says, is building resilience: “Rather than saying there will be no disaster in Japan, we should be able to say to the world: We are strong and ready to respond if disaster strikes.”
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