Another challenge is the project’s location on a man-made island, which lies in a natural disaster-prone zone, susceptible to earthquakes and typhoons. This raises serious engineering and safety concerns, especially given that the area will also host Expo 2025 and large future crowds.
In addition, there are questions regarding the long-term sustainability of the resort’s revenue. If other IR projects are approved in Japan or neighbouring regions, it could lead to heightened competition.
The Japanese government’s decision to legalise integrated resorts represents a major policy shift, highlighting efforts to diversify national income sources—moving away from a heavy reliance on manufacturing and exports, toward developing world-class hospitality and entertainment sectors.
More Than Just a Casino Resort
MGM Osaka is more than a casino resort. It serves as a pilot project for a new model of urban and economic development in Japan—one that blends luxury, technology, and international investment appeal.
More importantly, MGM Osaka could become a turning point for Japan’s tourism industry, with the potential to elevate Osaka as a leading IR hub in East Asia. Despite the multifaceted risks, with careful management and stringent regulatory oversight, the project may serve as a global benchmark for integrated resort development—and a catalyst for reshaping Japan’s economic landscape in the 21st century.
Key Information about the Project
The MGM Osaka Integrated Resort (IR)—Japan’s first casino resort—officially began construction on April 24, 2025, on Yumeshima Island, an artificial island in Osaka Bay.
Total Investment: Approximately ¥1.27 trillion (US$8.9 billion)
Scheduled Opening: Fall 2030
Main Investors: MGM Resorts International and Orix Corporation, each holding a 42.5% stake. The remaining 15% is held by local partners such as Panasonic, Kansai Electric, and West Japan Railway.
Planned Facilities: A casino, three hotels with a total of approximately 2,500 rooms, a 400,000-square-foot convention centre, a 330,000-square-foot exhibition space, a 3,500-seat theatre, restaurants, and retail shops.
Projected Revenue: Estimated annual gaming revenue of US$5.9 billion and EBITDA exceeding US$2 billion.
Latest Developments
MGM’s Capital Increase: MGM Resorts International has increased its investment to around US$3 billion, accommodating rising costs following contractor negotiations, while remaining confident in achieving high returns on investment. (Source: CasinoReviews.Net)
Construction and Expo 2025 Coordination: Since Yumeshima Island is the venue for Expo 2025, construction activities will be scaled back during periods of high visitor traffic. Use of heavy machinery is scheduled to resume after the Expo concludes in October 2025.
Infrastructure Improvements: A new subway station opened in January 2025 to facilitate access to Expo 2025 and, in the future, MGM Osaka. The Kintetsu Nara Line is also being extended to improve connectivity to the island.
In-Depth Timeline: The Development of Japan’s IR Concept
Before the 2000s: A Concept in the Shadows
The idea of legalising casinos in Japan remained a sensitive issue due to the country’s strict stance on gambling.
While certain forms of gambling, like pachinko and lotteries, were allowed under special exemptions, casinos were strictly prohibited.
2002: First Official Policy Study
A group of bipartisan lawmakers formed the Pro-IR Diet Caucus, advocating for integrated resorts.
They commissioned studies based on international examples, such as Singapore, Las Vegas, and Macau, to explore the economic potential and regulatory frameworks.
2010–2015: Business and Local Government Momentum
Major cities like Osaka and Yokohama began showing strong interest, viewing IR development as a strategy to attract investment and boost tourism.
Private companies, including Orix and Panasonic, joined in lobbying local governments to support the initiative.
December 2016: IR Promotion Law Passed
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the government passed the IR Promotion Law, presenting it as a tool for economic revitalization.
The law allowed for the legal establishment of up to three integrated casino resorts in Japan.
July 2018: IR Implementation Law Passed
This follow-up legislation detailed key regulatory frameworks, including:
A cap on casino visits for Japanese nationals (maximum 3 times per week)
The creation of an independent Casino Regulatory Commission
A taxation system on casino revenues
This marked the beginning of a formal proposal process from municipalities nationwide.
2019–2020: Host City Selection
Over five cities expressed interest, including Osaka, Yokohama, Nagasaki, and Wakayama.
Osaka emerged as the frontrunner due to its robust infrastructure and the availability of Yumeshima Island for development.
April 2022–2023: Osaka Submits IR Plan to National Government
Osaka officially proposed MGM Resorts and Orix as project developers.
In April 2023, Osaka’s IR plan became the first to receive government approval.
April 2025: Construction of MGM Osaka Begins
After years of preparation involving environmental reviews, engineering assessments, and financial structuring, construction officially commenced.
Slow and Steady: Japan’s “Incrementalism” Approach
Japan adopted a gradualist, highly cautious approach to IR development, especially given the societal sensitivity around gambling.
The government emphasized studying international cases, implementing layered regulatory controls, and striking a balance between economic opportunity and social risk.
Summary
Policy study and legal groundwork period: Nearly 20 years
Time from major law passage to construction start: Around 9 years (2016–2025)
This project represents the outcome of a long-term strategic process, combining political negotiation, economic planning, and deep public engagement—a reflection of how Japan navigates complex social issues through deliberate policymaking.
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