The surge in visitors to Japan over the past decade has made the tourism industry an outsize success story for an otherwise laggard economy. So attractive has Japan become as a destination for travelers around the world that international airlines are clamoring to add more routes and services. But they face a problem: Japan’s dwindling oil refineries can’t supply enough jet fuel to get all of the planes back again.
Plans on ice
Officials at Narita Airport near Tokyo — Japan’s main gateway for international arrivals — reported in late June that six airlines had shelved plans to add a total of 57 flights to the weekly schedule. Other carriers look set to follow suit.
Regional airports are also suffering. Every winter, New Chitose Airport near Sapporo in Hokkaido Prefecture welcomes waves of skiers and snowboarders, drawn by northern Japan’s famously deep powder. But this year, Australia’s Qantas Airways and Singapore Airlines have canceled their seasonal flights to the airport. They say they can’t procure enough fuel for the return journeys.
A sticky problem
The causes of the problem are multiple, transport minister Saito Tetsuo told a recent news conference. The principal reason is a sharp decline in the number of Japan’s oil refineries, which process imported crude oil into fuel that can be used in planes. Saito said labor shortages in the trucking and shipping industries have compounded the challenges.
The number of refineries in Japan peaked in 1983, when there were 49 around the country’s coastline. A decline in demand for oil, coupled with a more recent government push to scale back on fossil fuels, has more than halved the number to 20.
Not only is there less fuel, but the fuel being produced must now travel further to its destination: first by ship to the nearest port, and then by truck.
Hokkaido used to have two refineries, but now has only one, meaning more fuel must be brought over from the mainland to meet rising demand.
No easy fix
The government has appointed a panel of people from a range of industries to tackle the problem, but one voice in the shipping business says there isn’t any easy solution.
Sasaki Shigeo, head of Kobe-based shipping company Toko Kaiun, says there are two immovable obstacles standing in the way of any effort to increase fuel deliveries. The first is that Japan doesn’t have enough ships.
“Shipyards are already running at full capacity,” Sasaki says. “It takes about three years just to make the hull for a new ship. So even if we place an order with a shipyard right now, it will take at least two to three years to finish building it.”
The second hurdle is Japan’s acute labor shortage. A rapidly aging population has left most industries short-handed. The transport industry is being hit particularly hard, especially after the recent introduction of strict new rules on overtime that have forced employers to hire more people to cover the same hours.
“You’ve got about 1,000 workers retiring each year,” Sasaki says. “At the same time, there are only about 400 new people coming in. To be completely honest, we’re barely coping.”
Another complicating factor is an international rule that says coastal ships can only be crewed by nationals of the country, so the shipping industry can’t look to foreign manpower for help.
Apart from all of these considerations, Sasaki says, the Japanese government has a potentially bigger dilemma. The push to get more flights into Japan conflicts with another push – to slash carbon emissions and achieve a net-zero society by 2050. This, he says, could be the greatest challenge of all.
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